Legislature(2015 - 2016)Anch LIO Rm 203

09/29/2016 02:30 PM Senate FINANCE

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Audio Topic
02:40:35 PM Start
02:42:52 PM Discussion of Pension Obligation Bonds
04:43:25 PM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
-- Time Change --
-- Testimony <Invitation Only> --
+ DISCUSSION OF PENSION OBLIGATION BONDS: TELECONFERENCED
Department of Revenue:
Randall Hoffbeck, Commissioner
Jerry Burnett, Deputy Commissioner
Deven Mitchell, Executive Director, Alaska
Municipal Bond Bank Authority
                 SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE                                                                                       
         ANCHORAGE LEGISLATIVE INFORMATION OFFICE                                                                               
                    September 29, 2016                                                                                          
                         2:40 p.m.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
[Note: The following meeting convened in the Anchorage                                                                          
Legislative Information  Office and was  teleconferenced and                                                                    
recorded in Juneau.]                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
2:40:35 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CALL TO ORDER                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  called the Senate Finance  Committee meeting                                                                    
to order at 2:40 p.m.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Anna MacKinnon, Co-Chair                                                                                                
Senator Pete Kelly, Co-Chair                                                                                                    
Senator Peter Micciche, Vice-Chair                                                                                              
Senator Click Bishop                                                                                                            
Senator Mike Dunleavy                                                                                                           
Senator Lyman Hoffman                                                                                                           
Senator Donny Olson                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
None                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
ALSO PRESENT                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Jerry  Burnett,  Deputy   Commissioner,  Treasury  Division,                                                                    
Department of  Revenue; Deven Mitchell,  Executive Director,                                                                    
Alaska   Municipal  Bond   Bank  Authority,   Department  of                                                                    
Revenue;   Steve   Kantor,    Financial   Advisor,   Hilltop                                                                    
Securities;  Randall Hoffbeck,  Commissioner, Department  of                                                                    
Revenue; Steve  Kantor, Financial Advisor,  First Southwest;                                                                    
Financial  Advisor,  Pension  Obligation  Bond  Corporation;                                                                    
Mark Foster, Fiscal Study  Group Member, Commonwealth North;                                                                    
Representative    Steve   Thompson;    Representative   Mike                                                                    
Chenault;  Representative  Dan Saddler;  Representative  Liz                                                                    
Vasquez.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
PRESENT VIA TELECONFERENCE                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Stephen Gauthier,  Government Finance  Officers Association;                                                                    
Representative Sam Kito.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
SUMMARY                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
DISCUSSION OF PENSION OBLIGATION BONDS                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly relayed that  the administration had proposed                                                                    
issuing  pension obligation  bonds,  and  the committee  was                                                                    
gathered to consider the idea.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
^DISCUSSION OF PENSION OBLIGATION BONDS                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
2:42:52 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
JERRY  BURNETT,  DEPUTY   COMMISSIONER,  TREASURY  DIVISION,                                                                    
DEPARTMENT OF  REVENUE, relayed  that he  was acting  in the                                                                    
role of  Designated Chair of  the Alaska  Pension Obligation                                                                    
Bond Corporation  (APOBC). He stated  that the POBC  had met                                                                    
the previous  Monday to approve  the issuance of up  to $3.5                                                                    
billion worth of pension obligation  bonds and delegated the                                                                    
responsibilities for  doing the  transactions to  the staff.                                                                    
He  added  that  staff included  Devin  Mitchell,  Executive                                                                    
Director, Alaska  Municipal Bond Bank  Authority, Department                                                                    
of Revenue;  and the officers  of the APOBC,  which included                                                                    
himself and  the commissioner of  the Department  of Revenue                                                                    
(DOR).  He  added  that Commissioner  Randall  Hoffbeck  was                                                                    
attending another meeting and would  be present later in the                                                                    
meeting.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett stated that he  would go through the reasons why                                                                    
the  state should  do  a pension  obligation  bond, how  the                                                                    
administration  would  protect  and state  and  the  pension                                                                    
system  from  the  problems  that had  been  raised  by  the                                                                    
Government  Finance Officers  Association  (GFOA). The  GFOA                                                                    
had stated  in its advisory bulletin  that local governments                                                                    
and states should not do pension obligation bonds.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly  wondered if  there  was  anyone online.  He                                                                    
noted that  Representative Kito was  online. He asked  for a                                                                    
list of members of the APOBC.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett replied  that statute  defined  the members  of                                                                    
APOBC  as  the  commissioners  of  DOR,  the  Department  of                                                                    
Administration,  and the  Department of  Commerce, Community                                                                    
and Economic  Development. He continued  that in  each case,                                                                    
the  commissioners  (if  not available)  had  delegated  the                                                                    
authority  to a  deputy  commissioner  to include:  himself,                                                                    
John  Boucher, Senior  Economist, Office  of Management  and                                                                    
Budget,  Office of  the Governor;  and  Fred Parady,  Deputy                                                                    
Commissioner,   Department  of   Commerce,  Community,   and                                                                    
Economic Development. He explained  that the corporation was                                                                    
established  through  legislation   in  2008  (sponsored  by                                                                    
Representative Mike Hawker), at which  time up to $5 billion                                                                    
in bonds was authorized for issuance.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly asked  about the  year  the legislation  was                                                                    
passed. Mr. Burnett replied that it was in 2008.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:46:40 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
DEVEN  MITCHELL, EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR, ALASKA  MUNICIPAL BOND                                                                    
BANK  AUTHORITY, DEPARTMENT  OF REVENUE,  explained that  he                                                                    
would  provide  some background  as  to  why the  state  had                                                                    
unfunded liabilities  and why pension obligation  bonds were                                                                    
being  discussed.  He explained  that  the  state managed  a                                                                    
number of retirement systems, the  two largest of which were                                                                    
the  Public Employees'  Retirement  System  (PERS), and  the                                                                    
Teachers'  Retirement System  (TRS). He  continued that  the                                                                    
retirement  programs had  three separate  tiers, which  were                                                                    
defined benefit programs.  He remarked that there  was now a                                                                    
retirement program in place that  was a defined contribution                                                                    
program. He stressed that there  were still employees in the                                                                    
first three  tiers that were guaranteed  by the constitution                                                                    
and  that  the  system  was intended  to  be  prefunded.  He                                                                    
remarked  that  the  benefits   were  estimated  through  an                                                                    
actuarial analysis in the late  1990s to be fully funded. He                                                                    
stressed that  the actuarial  analysis was  incorrect (after                                                                    
using outdated  mortality tables), resulting in  an unfunded                                                                    
actuarial liability.  He shared that the  unfunded liability                                                                    
was currently $6 billion, which  would pay up to $20 billion                                                                    
of future  benefits, due to  an 8 percent  return assumption                                                                    
in  the pension  system's  actuarial  analysis. He  remarked                                                                    
that it  was critical to  look at the future  payments, with                                                                    
the exception  of the  $6 billion, as  growing at  8 percent                                                                    
per year.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  asked if Mr. Mitchell  was discussing both                                                                    
TRS and PERS.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell answered in the affirmative.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
2:50:18 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon asked  if  the  funding being  discussed                                                                    
included healthcare.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell answered in the  affirmative. He furthered that                                                                    
the  Other  Postemployment  Benefits  (OPEB)  piece  of  the                                                                    
retirement  system (after  deposits  in 2015)  was near  100                                                                    
percent funded in  PERS, and were slightly  over 100 percent                                                                    
funded in  TRS as of  the last approved  actuarial analysis.                                                                    
[Secretaries note:  OPEB are benefits (other  than pensions)                                                                    
that  U.S.  state and  local  governments  provide to  their                                                                    
retired employees].  He explained  that the trust  was split                                                                    
apart into  four pieces, two  in TRS  and two in  PERS, with                                                                    
one for pension and one for OPEB.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon  referred  to  a footnote  by  a  credit                                                                    
rating agency  that indicated the  state was $12  billion to                                                                    
$14  billion in  a  liability position.  She  asked how  the                                                                    
reference compared to the $6 billion of unfunded liability.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett  responded that rating agencies  applied its own                                                                    
discount  rate,  and the  $6  billion  was  based on  the  8                                                                    
percent  actuarial assumed  rate that  the retirement  board                                                                    
was using.  He continued  that rating agencies  each applied                                                                    
its  own  rate,  and  the  rate would  result  in  a  larger                                                                    
liability than what was produced with 8 percent.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Senator   Bishop   remarked   that  there   was   historical                                                                    
background offered,  which had included a  miscalculation of                                                                    
the actuarial  assumption. He wanted  to know what  cash was                                                                    
available for the fund.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett  stated that for  purposes of funding,  under SB
125 and  under the calculation  for the employer  rate, POBC                                                                    
was using  8 percent.  [Secretary's note: In  FY 08,  SB 125                                                                    
converted  the PERS  defined-benefit  plan  to a  cost-share                                                                    
plan, like  TRS, and provided  for one integrated  system of                                                                    
accounting for all employers.]                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
2:52:54 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  asked if the  current payoff  amount would                                                                    
be $6 billion.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell stated  that today it would take  $6 billion to                                                                    
be placed in  the fund to earn 8 percent  until it was spent                                                                    
in the future to satisfy  the expected pension benefits that                                                                    
would materialize.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy asked  how much  it would  be if  the full                                                                    
amount  owed to  each  individual were  calculated and  paid                                                                    
immediately.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell asked  if Senator Dunleavy meant to  ask for an                                                                    
amount not assuming any rate of return on the benefits.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy answered in the affirmative.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell stated  that a  one percent  reduction in  the                                                                    
rate of return  pushed the amount from $11  billion to about                                                                    
$19 billion.  He noted  that the amount  was not  in present                                                                    
value,  but rather  in payments.  He discussed  calculations                                                                    
and concluded that it would  require a significant amount of                                                                    
additional  funding  if the  state  were  to assume  a  zero                                                                    
percent rate of return on the trust.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  asked if  the amount  was higher  than $19                                                                    
billion.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell  replied  that  he  had  used  a  hypothetical                                                                    
scenario  of only  a 1  percent differential,  and had  only                                                                    
considered  the cash  flow. Later  on in  the analysis,  the                                                                    
payment that was projected with  an 8 percent assumption was                                                                    
about  $11 billion.  If the  rate of  return assumption  was                                                                    
reduced to  7 percent,  the payment  amount jumped  to $19.8                                                                    
billion.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly asked for clarification  on the amounts being                                                                    
discussed.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett stated  that the  state would  have to  pay $11                                                                    
billion to replace the $6 billion if it was not paid now.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell explained  that  recognition  of the  unfunded                                                                    
liability had  occurred in the early  2000s. The recognition                                                                    
resulted in  a push by the  Murkowski administration [former                                                                    
Governor  Frank  Murkowski]   for  pension  obligation  bond                                                                    
authorization,  which was  approved  by  the legislature  in                                                                    
2008.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:56:39 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell  discussed   the  PowerPoint,  "Department  of                                                                    
Revenue; Presentation  to Senate Finance  Committee; Pension                                                                    
Obligation Bond  Transaction; September  29, 2016"  (copy on                                                                    
file).                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
He  read  from  slide   2,  "GFOA  Pension  Obligation  Bond                                                                    
Advisory Bulletin Concerns and POBC Mitigation":                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
     Might Fail to Earn Bond Interest Rate                                                                                      
          •Interest rate is the one variable POB Issuers                                                                        
          can control                                                                                                           
          •The lower the rate the higher the expectation of                                                                     
          success over the 23 year life                                                                                         
          •The PERS and TRS have an assumed rate of return                                                                      
          of 8% for the prefunding of the pension trusts                                                                        
          •The bond interest rate is expected to be below                                                                       
          4.0% including all costs of issuance                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
    POBs are Complex Instruments with Considerable Risk                                                                         
          •The POBC has only authorized fixed rate debt,                                                                        
          the most simple means of issuing bonds                                                                                
          •No derivatives or variable rate products are                                                                         
          allowed                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell stated that there  were many reasons not to use                                                                    
pension obligation  bonds, and that  bonds had been  used in                                                                    
fiscally  irresponsible  ways.  He explicated  that  it  was                                                                    
possible to take greater savings  up front and create bigger                                                                    
liability  in the  future. He  stated that  there were  ways                                                                    
that  he considered  more and  less fiscally  responsible to                                                                    
structure a transaction. He thought  what was being proposed                                                                    
by  the administration  was as  fiscally responsible  as was                                                                    
possible  if one  were to  choose to  do pension  obligation                                                                    
bonds.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  discussed the GFOA concerns  outlined on slide                                                                    
2. He thought  the state had solved the  systemic issue that                                                                    
was  present  in   tier  1  of  the   retirement  plans.  He                                                                    
emphasized  that  the   one  thing  that  was   able  to  be                                                                    
controlled  in a  pension obligation  bond issuance  was the                                                                    
cost  of  capital.  He  noted  that  APOBC  had  approved  a                                                                    
resolution  that allowed  for  an interest  rate  up to  4.5                                                                    
percent. If the  trust did not receive that  rate of return,                                                                    
it would make things worse.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
3:00:02 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche asked  about Mr. Mitchell's hypothetical                                                                    
scenario that included a 1  percent reduction in the rate of                                                                    
return which  would bring  the $11  billion in  liability to                                                                    
$19 billion. He wondered if  the rate comparison had started                                                                    
with 4 percent or 8 percent.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell replied that the  comparison had been made from                                                                    
an 8  percent to a  7 percent  rate of return.  He clarified                                                                    
that $6 billion  was the equivalent of the $11  billion on a                                                                    
present  value basis.  He continued  that  for each  percent                                                                    
that went down,  there was a fairly  linear relationship. If                                                                    
the  funds  were  only  earning 6  percent,  then  it  would                                                                    
increase the  payment amount by  $8.8 billion.  He clarified                                                                    
that it would  not be impacted by the bonds,  which would be                                                                    
paying 4 percent.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  wondered how the  risk would be  rated for                                                                    
Alaska.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett  replied that  over the past  30 years  that the                                                                    
pension funds had  been in play, the funds  have earned more                                                                    
than 8 percent.  He noted that there would be  a chart later                                                                    
in  the   presentation  that  would  show   rolling  20-year                                                                    
averages  every year  for the  previous  several years,  and                                                                    
would  reflect  a rate  of  return  that  was well  above  4                                                                    
percent.  He pointed  out that  the amount  of money  in the                                                                    
pension  obligation bond  issue was  very small  (with small                                                                    
risk)  relative to  the rest  of  the money  in the  pension                                                                    
funds (with  larger risk), as  well as the  unfunded amount.                                                                    
He referred to the systematic  underfunding of the system in                                                                    
the late  1990s and  early 2000s, created  by miscalculation                                                                    
of certain actuaries.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy queried  that if the risk was  such, why it                                                                    
was not  recommended that government  be funded  through the                                                                    
same approach.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett replied  that the state had a debt  that must be                                                                    
paid, and currently the state was  paying the debt with an 8                                                                    
percent interest rate.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
3:03:59 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy asked if the  state was going to incur more                                                                    
debt  to  pay  of  its  debt. Mr.  Burnett  replied  in  the                                                                    
negative, and  clarified that the  state would  be replacing                                                                    
one debt [in pension debt] with another debt.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy asked  anecdotally  if  Mr. Burnett  would                                                                    
recommend that Alaskans  take a mortgage out  on their house                                                                    
and play the market.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett replied in the negative.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon  stressed  that the  pension  obligation                                                                    
bonds  were a  bonding mechanism  that was  affected by  the                                                                    
federal interest rate, and not  necessarily stocks that were                                                                    
moving up and  down in the market. She  furthered that bonds                                                                    
could  be invested  in stocks,  but  the administration  was                                                                    
proposing  something  more  fixed, that  was  not  competing                                                                    
directly with stocks.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett explained that the  proposal was to borrow money                                                                    
at   a  fixed   rate   of  interest   in  an   international                                                                    
marketplace, which  would be sold  at a fixed  interest rate                                                                    
over a period of 23 years.  Proceeds from the bonds would be                                                                    
invested along with the rest  of the pension fund, using the                                                                    
same asset allocation as the  fund board was currently using                                                                    
to invest.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  stressed that  the proposal was  not the                                                                    
same as purchasing a stock.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett stated  that a  common concern  was that  often                                                                    
times when people proposed use  of pension obligation bonds,                                                                    
it was  proposed with  a variable  rate interest  rate, with                                                                    
derivatives,  etc.; where  there  was  a significant  market                                                                    
risk  in how  much was  required to  pay for  the bonds.  He                                                                    
confirmed   that  the   administration  was   not  proposing                                                                    
anything  like such  an  idea, but  rather  was proposing  a                                                                    
simple fixed rate security.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon asked  about the  APOBC resolution  that                                                                    
provided the parameters  the administration was considering,                                                                    
including  the fixed  rate  and the  amount  of the  pension                                                                    
obligation bonds.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett agreed to provide the information.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
3:07:20 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche  asked  about  Mr.  Burnett's  comments                                                                    
pertaining  to replacing  debt. He  wondered if  Mr. Burnett                                                                    
had been  referring to trading  an 8  percent debt with  a 4                                                                    
percent or lower debt.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett responded in the affirmative.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche  again  referred   to  the  concept  of                                                                    
replacing debt, and asked if  Mr. Burnett had been referring                                                                    
to up to $3.5 billion versus  the $20 billion or so that was                                                                    
already invested.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett agreed,  and stated  that there  was already  a                                                                    
huge debt on the pension system.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly  invited  Representative Saddler  to  ask  a                                                                    
question at the table.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Representative  Saddler  wondered  if the  $3.5  billion  in                                                                    
pension  obligation bond  issues would  meet 100  percent of                                                                    
the  pension  obligation,   or  if  there  was   a  risk  of                                                                    
overfunding  that might  result  in  increased benefits  for                                                                    
retirees.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  replied that the sizing  would depend somewhat                                                                    
on what  the market would  bear, and it was  unknown exactly                                                                    
how  much  of the  potential  authority  would be  sold.  He                                                                    
furthered that it  would be a range of $2.3  billion to $3.3                                                                    
billion.  At the  $2.3 billion  mark, the  corporation would                                                                    
plan to  make a $980  million deposit into TRS,  which would                                                                    
fund it to  90 percent. There would be a  smaller deposit of                                                                    
approximately $1.3  billion to  PERS that  would fund  it to                                                                    
approximately 80 percent. If there  was a larger transaction                                                                    
of $2.3  billion in to PERS,  the system would be  funded to                                                                    
90 percent.  He continued that  at 90 percent, there  was an                                                                    
expectation  of having  some positive  years  and not  being                                                                    
over funded  in the short  term. He remarked that  a primary                                                                    
benefit of  the PERS transaction  was that if  the actuarial                                                                    
assumptions were  borne out, it would  eliminate the state's                                                                    
payment on behalf of the other employer's payments.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly asked for Vice-Chair  Micciche to restate his                                                                    
earlier questions.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche  announced  that  that  the  state  was                                                                    
already covering  the debt  at an  8 percent  interest rate,                                                                    
and pondered  that Mr. Burnett  was talking  about replacing                                                                    
the debt with another debt at  an interest rate of 4 percent                                                                    
or under.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett replied in the affirmative.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche reiterated that  the state had a similar                                                                    
arrangement  with obligation  bonds on  $20 billion  already                                                                    
invested, versus the proposed bonds  (up to $3.5 billion) on                                                                    
the books.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
3:11:23 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon challenged  that local municipalities had                                                                    
an obligation to pay its debt  that had been incurred in the                                                                    
system, while  the state would  be removing the debt  by the                                                                    
investment. She thought the proposal  was a policy decision,                                                                    
and  that  the state  would  clean  up  all of  the  pension                                                                    
liability based  on the  POB proposal.  She agreed  that 100                                                                    
percent of the  state's liability rested in  the TRS system.                                                                    
She referred to Representative  Saddler's question about the                                                                    
possibility  of  overfunding  and  expanding  benefits,  and                                                                    
wondered why the  state would put up to $2.5  billion in the                                                                    
PERS system when  the state was not  100 percent responsible                                                                    
for the system.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly invited  Representative  Thompson  to ask  a                                                                    
question.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Representative  Thompson  asked  if   the  state  went  from                                                                    
funding 90 percent  to 100 percent of its  obligation, if it                                                                    
meant  the  municipalities  involved  in  the  system  would                                                                    
expect  rates to  go down.  Conversely, he  wondered if  the                                                                    
rates  would go  up if  the  following year  there was  less                                                                    
funding.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett  replied that  the  APOBC,  in structuring  the                                                                    
proposal, had  been very concerned  with going below  the 22                                                                    
percent that municipalities currently  paid. He relayed that                                                                    
the group was basing its decisions  on a reading of the law,                                                                    
in which the municipalities continued  to pay at 22 percent,                                                                    
and therefore  continuing to make  payments into  the system                                                                    
to  reduce  the unfunded  liability.  He  continued that  by                                                                    
funding to  the 90 percent,  and to an allowable  level, the                                                                    
rate would  be about 25  percent if the  municipalities were                                                                    
paying their share  of the current payment  (with no payment                                                                    
on behalf).                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett continued,  stating that  if the  pay rate  was                                                                    
left at  22 percent, in  the early years  the municipalities                                                                    
would  be paying  to help  with the  unfunded liability  and                                                                    
reducing the state's exposure.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
3:14:48 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   MacKinnon   thought   there   was   pressure   on                                                                    
legislators  through an  administrative policy  to have  the                                                                    
municipalities   come  to   cities  asking   to  lower   the                                                                    
contribution  rate. She  emphasized that  the municipalities                                                                    
had played a part in getting  the state into the position it                                                                    
was in  with unfunded  liability. She  pointed out  that the                                                                    
state had  put up $3  billion in cash  to try and  help with                                                                    
the problem.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett agreed, and remarked  that the state had done an                                                                    
incredible job  relative to the municipalities.  He referred                                                                    
to  discussions with  a variety  of city  attorneys, finance                                                                    
officers, and  managers; and universally they  had preferred                                                                    
to leave  the 22 percent  contribution rate in  place rather                                                                    
than  a  variable  rate  in   the  future.  He  thought  the                                                                    
continuity of the rate would  make for a more stable system.                                                                    
He  commented  that the  current  law  would allow  for  the                                                                    
continuity, but perhaps could be strengthened.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell clarified  that if the $2.3 billion  was put in                                                                    
the trust  the actuarial analysis would  produce an employer                                                                    
contribution  requirement below  22  percent,  and would  be                                                                    
closer to 17 percent or 18  percent. The law (as reviewed by                                                                    
the  Department of  Law, the  legislative attorney,  and the                                                                    
municipal attorney)  stated that  a 22  percent contribution                                                                    
rate was not only a  floor but a ceiling. Consequently, even                                                                    
though  the  actuarially  determined rate  would  drop,  the                                                                    
municipalities would still pay  22 percent. He explained the                                                                    
possible  fluctuation  of  the  rate,  and  stated  that  by                                                                    
maintaining the  22 percent rate,  it was expected  that the                                                                    
rate would never have to go  above 22 percent in the future.                                                                    
He summarized  that the municipalities would  wind up paying                                                                    
a  share of  the unfunded  liability, whereas  with a  "rate                                                                    
holiday" they would not.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:18:20 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon understood,  but  stressed  that if  the                                                                    
administration went  forward there would be  pressure on the                                                                    
legislature to reduce  the cap from 22  percent because some                                                                    
municipalities  would  argue  they  were  paying  more  than                                                                    
necessary, even though  the state had been  paying on behalf                                                                    
for years.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  replied that if municipalities  started asking                                                                    
for a  rate reduction, they would  need to be aware  that it                                                                    
would create future liability.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy   referred  to  previous   comments  about                                                                    
investing in  the market  and interest  rates. He  asked for                                                                    
Mr. Burnett to discuss the investment of proceeds.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett explained  that  investment  proceeds would  be                                                                    
invested by  the Alaska  Retirement Management  (ARM) Board,                                                                    
in  exactly the  same way  that it  was investing  money for                                                                    
PERS and TRS.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
3:20:04 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  asked if  the board  was investing  in the                                                                    
stock market.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett  conveyed that  the board  was investing  in the                                                                    
stock market, private equity  real estate, other alternative                                                                    
investments, and bonds.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly surmised  that if the state  went to bonding,                                                                    
the  funds  went  to  the  ARM board,  and  were  no  longer                                                                    
available to the legislature.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett concurred.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  remarked that there  was no way to  reap any                                                                    
benefit  from the  money (beyond  paying pension  obligation                                                                    
debt) if there was difficult  financial times in the future.                                                                    
He discussed the  use of potential savings in  the period of                                                                    
time  that  payments  to  the pension  fund  went  down.  He                                                                    
thought  bonding would  put the  state in  a more  difficult                                                                    
position in  the future unless  conditions turned out  to be                                                                    
favorable.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett  thought  Co-Chair   Kelly  had  stated  things                                                                    
correctly,  but  clarified  that  under  current  accounting                                                                    
rules  on credit  analysis, payments  to  the pension  funds                                                                    
were considered like  bonds sold to an  outside investor. He                                                                    
continued that  if the legislature  failed to pay  a payment                                                                    
of the  Unfunded Actuarial Accrued  Liability (UAAL)  to the                                                                    
pension  fund,  it  would  be  seen  as  an  extreme  credit                                                                    
negative; similar  to if  the state failed  to pay  the bond                                                                    
payments. He stated  that the pension obligations  had to be                                                                    
paid,   because   it  was   a   contractual   item  in   the                                                                    
constitution. He  clarified (not  as a  recommendation) that                                                                    
defaulting  on an  obligation  to an  outside  entity was  a                                                                    
better  result to  the state  than not  paying the  unfunded                                                                    
liability directly to the pension trust.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:23:40 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly identified that the  state had the ability to                                                                    
pay or reduce  payments to the state assistance  in the hope                                                                    
that it would buy some time.  He emphasized that if the debt                                                                    
was turned  into a bond  payment, the state would  no longer                                                                    
have the same flexibility.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett  stated that the  bond payment only  limited the                                                                    
ability to reduce  state assistance, as it  would still have                                                                    
an extreme credit negative if not paid.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly  clarified  that  he was  referring  to  the                                                                    
state's ability to pay its bills.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett expressed  understanding.  He  stated that  the                                                                    
administration believed  that the savings in  cash flow made                                                                    
the transaction worthwhile.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell added  that Co-Chair Kelly was  correct in that                                                                    
the  bonds  would  limit  the   state's  options,  but  some                                                                    
optionality  would be  retained.  The state  would still  be                                                                    
paying 22 percent payroll as  an employer, over the required                                                                    
amount  and thereby  retaining some  flexibility. The  state                                                                    
would  retain a  payment on  behalf of  payments in  the TRS                                                                    
system,  because of  the lower  floor.  He thought  Co-Chair                                                                    
Kelly  had made  a valid  point, and  agreed that  the state                                                                    
would  be   giving  up  some  flexibility   under  the  bond                                                                    
scenario.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy  asked  about reinvesting  proceeds  after                                                                    
selling bonds.  He asked  for an  explanation of  what would                                                                    
happen if there was a  one percent return on investment over                                                                    
the life of the bond.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell replied  that under  the  scenario, the  state                                                                    
would pay more than it earned.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett added  that the state would also  be earning one                                                                    
percent on  the rest of  the balance in the  pension system,                                                                    
so  the payments  on  behalf would  go  to an  unsustainable                                                                    
level and the system would be broken.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy asked if the  pension obligation bonds were                                                                    
a gamble.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett  stated that it  was a  gamble to have  a funded                                                                    
pension system and assume that it will have enough funding.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  asked if it  was a gamble to  predict what                                                                    
the stock market would do on the following day.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett answered in the affirmative.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:26:47 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  referred to when the  administration was                                                                    
considering  restructuring the  permanent fund,  and relayed                                                                    
that  the  legislature had  reviewed  rates  of return.  She                                                                    
thought 8 percent, prospectively,  was too high according to                                                                    
financial markets  and credit  rating agencies.  She thought                                                                    
that  there could  be  a difference  of $8  billion  on a  1                                                                    
percent  assumption.  She  referred   to  the  20-year  rate                                                                    
retrospective that  was mentioned earlier,  and acknowledged                                                                    
that there had  been rates above 8 percent.  She referred to                                                                    
Senator  Dunleavy's earlier  comments about  a zero  percent                                                                    
interest  rate  in Japan,  and  wondered  when it  would  be                                                                    
possible to observe real rates of return.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett  stated that  the  actuarial  assumption was  a                                                                    
rolling  20  year  experience, and  the  administration  had                                                                    
provided  a   7  percent  scenario  for   the  committee  to                                                                    
consider.  He  continued that  the  ARM  board reviewed  the                                                                    
actuarial  rate of  return  on a  four-year  basis, and  the                                                                    
following year the  rate would be reviewed.  When the review                                                                    
was done,  the rate  could be different  than 8  percent. He                                                                    
was not sure  of the outcome, and recalled that  at the last                                                                    
review,  the rate  was left  at 8  percent. The  actuary had                                                                    
done a  lot of analysis,  and the state's  financial advisor                                                                    
(Callan Associates) had  considered the rate to  be within a                                                                    
reasonable  range. He  thought the  average rate  for public                                                                    
pensions in the United States was around 7.5 percent.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett continued,  and relayed  that he  had seen  the                                                                    
analysis of  the Permanent Fund Protection  Act, and thought                                                                    
that rates  in the range of  6.9 to 7.25 had  been examined.                                                                    
He relayed  that Callan Associates had  calculated that two-                                                                    
thirds  of time,  the pension  fund would  produce somewhere                                                                    
between a  minus 4 percent  and a  20 percent return  in the                                                                    
next year. He relayed that  there was a new asset allocation                                                                    
and analysis  every year. He  continued that the  rate could                                                                    
be less  than 8  percent in  the future. If  the rate  was 7                                                                    
percent, the cash  flow under the current  plan would equate                                                                    
to another $8.8 billion over  the next 23 years, to amortize                                                                    
the unfunded liability. If the  state sold pension bonds, it                                                                    
would reduce the $8.8 billion by about $1.5 billion.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
3:31:36 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly  invited  Representative Saddler  to  ask  a                                                                    
question.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Representative  Saddler discussed  the investment  principal                                                                    
of not trying  to time the market. He wondered  if there was                                                                    
a way  to ameliorate  the cost  by having  a slower  pace of                                                                    
investment or dollar cost averaging.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett  stated that there  were a number of  methods to                                                                    
consider, and was  not sure what the ARM  board would choose                                                                    
to  do.  He assumed  that  the  ARM board  chief  investment                                                                    
officer Gary  Bader had  looked at  all possibilities  as to                                                                    
the  decision  to  put  the funds  into  the  current  asset                                                                    
allocation,  or to  "bleed the  funds in"  over a  period of                                                                    
time.  He confirmed  that the  decision would  be made  as a                                                                    
policy matter by the ARM board and staff.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell furthered  that it would take quite  a while to                                                                    
put $3  billion to  work, even  if one wanted  to put  it in                                                                    
right away.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Senator Bishop queried as to  how many other states had also                                                                    
made a  pension obligation  bond transaction, and  with what                                                                    
results.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
STEVE KANTOR, FINANCIAL  ADVISOR, HILLTOP SECURITIES, stated                                                                    
that there had been several  other states that had completed                                                                    
a  similar type  of transaction,  and the  transaction being                                                                    
proposed  was   "uniquely  Alaskan."  He  opined   that  the                                                                    
proposal had different aspects to  it that made it both more                                                                    
conservative, and also  a little bit safer than  some of the                                                                    
other transactions. He discussed  a recent large transaction                                                                    
done by the  State of Kansas; and  mentioned that additional                                                                    
similar transactions  had taken place  in the states  of New                                                                    
Jersey, Illinois, and Oregon.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
3:33:26 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon asked if the  state would be penalized if                                                                    
there were lower than expected  rates of return in the early                                                                    
year.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Kantor replied  that, evaluating  the transaction  over                                                                    
the 23-year period,  it was less advantageous  to have lower                                                                    
interest rates in  the beginning than the end.  The more the                                                                    
state earned  up front, the more  it could use to  build the                                                                    
fund up.  He thought  the transaction could  withstand lower                                                                    
interest rates  in the beginning  because the state  had the                                                                    
ability to continue  to earn rates over time, and  it was an                                                                    
average calculation rather than a one-year calculation.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   Kelly  remarked   that   he   had  gleaned   from                                                                    
presentations regarding  pension unfunded liability  that it                                                                    
was  almost  impossible  to   recover  from  failed  initial                                                                    
investments.  He   thought  Co-Chair  MacKinnon   had  valid                                                                    
concerns and remarked  that some of the impacts  on the fund                                                                    
were not reparable.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy  referred  to  passage of  the  bill  that                                                                    
authorized pension obligation bonds  in 2008, and the amount                                                                    
of time needed to recover from negative financial impacts.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
RANDALL  HOFFBECK,  COMMISSIONER,   DEPARTMENT  OF  REVENUE,                                                                    
noted  that the  rolling  20-year  average incorporated  the                                                                    
"meltdown"  Senator  Dunleavy  mentioned,  as  well  as  the                                                                    
.dotcom financial crisis, and rates  of return were still in                                                                    
the 7 percent range.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly asked for clarification.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner Hoffbeck  repeated that he was  discussing a 20                                                                    
year average of rates of return.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon expressed  concern with  the possibility                                                                    
that the market  was currently in a bubble and  while it was                                                                    
advantageous to  sell, it was not  currently advantageous to                                                                    
buy stock.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Kantor stated  that there was a lot of  conjecture as to                                                                    
what would happen. He pointed out  that there was a point at                                                                    
which  the stock  market had  risen unexpectedly  and defied                                                                    
expectations.  He  mentioned  market  unpredictability,  and                                                                    
emphasized the focus on the long  term in the context of the                                                                    
proposed POB transaction.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
3:37:46 PM                                                                                                                    
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
3:42:25 PM                                                                                                                    
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly wanted  to advance through the  slides of the                                                                    
presentation,  and asked  members  to  hold questions  until                                                                    
later in the meeting.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner Hoffbeck stated that he  wanted to focus on two                                                                    
slides. He  thought the  first slide  addressed many  of the                                                                    
concerns that  had been  expressed about  pension obligation                                                                    
bonds, and  would discuss why the  administration's proposal                                                                    
was  different than  some of  the objections  maintained. He                                                                    
conveyed that the last slide would show relevant numbers.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
3:43:38 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  returned to slide 2,  "GFOA Pension Obligation                                                                    
Bond Advisory Bulletin - Concerns and POBC Mitigation":                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     Potentially Uses Debt Capacity                                                                                             
          •With  implementation of  GASB 68  the portion  of                                                                    
          the    unfunded   actuarially    assumed   pension                                                                    
          liability in  PERS and TRS annual  payment that is                                                                    
          funded by the State has  been added to the State's                                                                    
          balance sheet as a debt                                                                                               
          •The  concept   of  soft  liability   versus  hard                                                                    
          liability is no longer viable                                                                                         
          •The  POBC   issue  will  replaces   the  existing                                                                    
          liability                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     POBS may Defer Principal Payment or Extend Repayment                                                                       
          •The  POB   payments  are  based  on   the  latest                                                                    
          actuarial   analysis   with    no   extension   of                                                                    
          amortization                                                                                                          
          •Annual payments  will be level  after a  2-4 year                                                                    
          ramp  up  period,  creating budget  stability  and                                                                    
          pushing savings into the future                                                                                       
          •All annual payments are tailored  to be less than                                                                    
          the current actuarial analysis projects                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     Rating Agencies May View POBs Negatively                                                                                   
          •The   POBC   has    structured   the   bonds   as                                                                    
          conservatively as possible                                                                                            
          •The POBC transaction is expected to be neutral                                                                       
          to positive for the State's rating                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell noted  that the  administration  had tried  to                                                                    
mitigate the  negative view of  pension obligation  bonds by                                                                    
avoiding the first  four points on the  slide. He emphasized                                                                    
that  the administration  had tried  to  structure the  bond                                                                    
proposal as  fiscally responsible  as possible to  avoid any                                                                    
potential for a negative  rating viewpoint. He discussed the                                                                    
viewpoint  of  rating  agencies, which  considered  unfunded                                                                    
pension liabilities to be the same as any other debt.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  turned to slide  7, "Cash Flow Benefit  - Rate                                                                    
of  Return Sensitivity."  He noted  that  the following  two                                                                    
slides would  show modelling  of the  base case  scenario as                                                                    
well as  the maximum  case scenario as  a comparison  of the                                                                    
potential  state  payment  after  a transaction  with  an  8                                                                    
percent return. The  base case scenario was  at $2.3 billion                                                                    
total principal amortization;  and the max case  was at $3.3                                                                    
billion,  which  would constitute  the  full  90 percent  of                                                                    
funding in both TRS and PRS.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  continued discussing  slide 7, and  noted that                                                                    
the  principal amortization  column  reflected the  payments                                                                    
the state would  be making as of today. He  pointed out that                                                                    
the  potential cash  flow benefit  at the  8 percent  return                                                                    
level  on the  max  case scenario  generated  just under  $3                                                                    
billion of  cash flow  relief. He continued  that in  FY 18,                                                                    
there would  be a $50  million reduction,  in part due  to a                                                                    
mismatch between  the budgetary  expectation and  the latest                                                                    
actuarial analysis that had not  yet been transferred to the                                                                    
Office  of   Management  and  Budget  or   the  Division  of                                                                    
Legislative  Finance.  He  continued  that  in  FY  19,  the                                                                    
benefit dropped to approximately  $1.6 million and then grew                                                                    
to  $404 million  in  FY  39. He  suggested  that the  table                                                                    
illustrated  budget stabilization  rather than  a short-term                                                                    
benefit.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:47:09 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell drew  attention to  the  "Potential Cash  Flow                                                                    
Benefit  - 7  percent Return"  column  on the  far right  of                                                                    
slide 7. He  noted that the 7 percent  return diminished the                                                                    
total budgetary relief  to $1.8 billion. He  stated that the                                                                    
administration would  pursue the transaction.  He reiterated                                                                    
that  there were  additional slides  to provide  backup, and                                                                    
thought  comparing  slide 8  and  slide  9 was  particularly                                                                    
useful.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell looked at slide  8, "State Payment Breakdown (8                                                                    
percent  Return)." He  drew attention  to the  total of  $11                                                                    
million  at  the  top  of  the  'Existing  State  Assistance                                                                    
Payment' column  of the left  hand table. He compared  it to                                                                    
the  $19  billion  total  of the  '7  percent  Return  State                                                                    
Assistance  Payment' column  on  slide 9;  and compared  the                                                                    
'Cash  Flow Benefit'  column totals  of the  two slides.  He                                                                    
thought  the   benefit  of  the  proposed   transaction  was                                                                    
apparent. He pointed out savings in FY 39.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly asked if Mr. Mitchell  had run numbers on a 6                                                                    
percent return scenario.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  answered in the  negative. He  elaborated that                                                                    
the analyst that  had worked on the  numbers being presented                                                                    
had  indicated  that the  results  were  fairly linear,  and                                                                    
therefore it  was possible to  estimate a 6 percent  rate of                                                                    
return based on the existing information.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
3:49:45 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche remarked  that financial  liability was                                                                    
always a  risk. He understood  that anything above  the rate                                                                    
of the issuance of the bond was a benefit to the state.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  agreed that there  would be a benefit;  and it                                                                    
would  be  the difference  between  the  4 percent  cost  of                                                                    
capital  (that the  state would  still be  paying), and  the                                                                    
4.15 annualized rate of return  that the state would earn on                                                                    
the invested assets.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche queried  the  odds  that selling  bonds                                                                    
would not reduce  the existing 8 percent  level of liability                                                                    
risk.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Mitchell  stated   that  historical   20-year  rolling                                                                    
averages  would indicate  a statistically  near 100  percent                                                                    
likelihood  of success.  He added  that there  was always  a                                                                    
risk in historical performance.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
3:51:23 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Representative Saddler  referred the  charts on slide  8 and                                                                    
slide 9, and asked about the state's retirement obligation.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell clarified  that the  numbers in  the "Existing                                                                    
State Asst. Payment" column reflected  the portion the state                                                                    
paid on  behalf of the  employers (including the  state). He                                                                    
clarified that  the figures were  not representative  of the                                                                    
22 percent of  payroll that the state  (and other employers)                                                                    
paid as an employer.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   MacKinnon  asked   if   the  administration   had                                                                    
structured a  direct cash  payment in order  to look  at the                                                                    
cost savings.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett  stated  that the  payment  depended  upon  the                                                                    
source of  funds. He continued  that the  administration was                                                                    
not aware  of a  source of  funds that was  not going  to be                                                                    
needed for  budgetary purposes for  other reasons,  that was                                                                    
available and  not earning more  than 4 percent.  He thought                                                                    
the only source  of funds that was not necessary  to use was                                                                    
taking  money  from  the  permanent  fund  earnings  reserve                                                                    
beyond  what would  otherwise  be taken  out.  He thought  a                                                                    
cash-to-cash analysis  would work if  the state had  a large                                                                    
balance  someplace in  a  fund that  was  not invested  long                                                                    
term.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  pointed out  that although  the department                                                                    
was moving ahead  with its plans and was  authorized by law,                                                                    
the legislature  was under no  obligation to fund  the bonds                                                                    
being considered.  He wondered  if the  administration would                                                                    
move   forward  if   there  were   not  enough   legislators                                                                    
supportive of appropriating the funding.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner  Hoffbeck hoped  the legislature  would support                                                                    
the action, and  thought it was a good  business decision to                                                                    
make. He furthered  that the reason the topic  had come back                                                                    
up was due to the fact that  the cost of debt had dropped so                                                                    
far.  He   emphasized  that   the  pension   obligation  was                                                                    
constitutionally  required  to  be  paid;  and  thought  the                                                                    
pertinent question was  whether the state wanted  to pay the                                                                    
debt at  8 percent, or  at 4  percent. He opined  that there                                                                    
was an opportunity to reduce  long-term costs, and the state                                                                    
should take it.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
3:55:10 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  discussed balancing  risk. He  discussed a                                                                    
prediction that  interest rates would maintain  or drop, and                                                                    
wondered  if the  situation  was time  sensitive  or if  the                                                                    
state  could wait  to have  a larger  discussion to  include                                                                    
more members.  He commented that the  transaction involved a                                                                    
large  sum of  money, there  were no  guarantees, and  there                                                                    
were inherent  risks. He reiterated  his question to  ask if                                                                    
the  administration would  go forward  with the  proposal if                                                                    
there was limited support.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner   Hoffbeck  expressed   concern  that   without                                                                    
support, failing to move forward  with the bonds would raise                                                                    
the cost  of the debt. He  thought if there was  verbal non-                                                                    
support  from the  legislature (which  put  concerns in  the                                                                    
market on the appropriation), it  would increase the cost of                                                                    
the bond  issuance and  cost the  state money.  He indicated                                                                    
that the issue of legislative  support would be weighed when                                                                    
the administration  was making the decision  to move forward                                                                    
with  the proposal.  He stipulated  that  if the  department                                                                    
could not get  a good deal for the state,  it would not move                                                                    
forward.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy  communicated  that  the  legislature  was                                                                    
under an  obligation to ask  as many questions  as possible.                                                                    
He thought that if the  questions raised the rates, it would                                                                    
be the concern of the administration.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner Hoffbeck  clarified that he had  stated that in                                                                    
moving forward,  the department would  need to  consider the                                                                    
impact legislative  support would  have on  the cost  of the                                                                    
bond issuance.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  thought it was  important to state  that the                                                                    
committee was  on the record, even  if it was not  acting on                                                                    
legislation  at   the  moment.   He  recommended   that  the                                                                    
administration take time to work  through the issue with the                                                                    
legislature so  that it did  not mistakenly say  anything on                                                                    
the  record  that could  possibly  impact  the state's  bond                                                                    
record.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner  Hoffbeck  shared  a   concern  that  when  the                                                                    
administration   had  originally   considered  the   pension                                                                    
obligation bonds  over the previous  summer, rates  had been                                                                    
approximately 3.5  percent; and  current rates had  risen to                                                                    
3.8  percent.  He thought  there  was  indications that  the                                                                    
market was starting to rise.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
3:59:37 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  asked about slide 10,  "Financing Schedule,"                                                                    
and wondered why  marketing in the United States  was on the                                                                    
schedule after marketing in Asia  and Europe. He wondered if                                                                    
there  was anything  in particular  to know  about the  time                                                                    
frame listed on the slide.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner Hoffbeck answered in  the negative, and relayed                                                                    
that the  administration had realized that  it was necessary                                                                    
to increase the number of  investors that purchased State of                                                                    
Alaska bonds.  He continued  that the  administration's goal                                                                    
was to  secure up to  100 new  investors. He stated  that it                                                                    
was more convenient  to go through the  United States toward                                                                    
the end of the financing schedule.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche   looked  at  the  principle   of  $3.5                                                                    
billion, and  wondered why there  was an 8  percent interest                                                                    
rate. He  wondered if the administration  had investigated a                                                                    
lower  fixed interest  rate that  presented some  savings to                                                                    
the state  but at a lower  level of risk than  going out for                                                                    
bonding.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell   asked  if   Vice-Chair  Micciche   had  been                                                                    
referring to the actuarial rate  of return of 8 percent, and                                                                    
wondering  why  the  administration  did not  have  a  lower                                                                    
target rate.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche answered in the affirmative.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell  expanded that  the  actuarial  rate had  most                                                                    
recently been 8.25 percent and  had diminished to 8 percent.                                                                    
He   continued  that   if  the   actuarial  assumption   was                                                                    
decreased,  it would  increase  the  unfunded liability.  He                                                                    
referred  back to  the  differing  state assistance  payment                                                                    
amounts as  reflected on slides  8 and 9, which  had changed                                                                    
with a  1 percent reduction in  the assumption of a  rate of                                                                    
return.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
4:02:26 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche  recalled that  Mr. Mitchell  had stated                                                                    
that  the  difference was  linear,  and  pondered that  a  6                                                                    
percent rate of  return could add another $8  billion to the                                                                    
state assistance payment.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner  Hoffbeck discussed  the risk  involved in  the                                                                    
proposed transaction;  and suggested that if  the bonds were                                                                    
sold at a  4 percent return, the state could  only achieve a                                                                    
3.75  percent rate  of return  over the  twenty year  period                                                                    
being examined.  He asserted  that the  resultant loss  of a                                                                    
quarter of  a percent could  be considered a  rounding error                                                                    
compared the  larger issue  of funding  the pension  fund if                                                                    
the state only achieved a 3.75 rate of return.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon asked if  the aforementioned 23-year time                                                                    
period was  an expected plan  closure date. She  inquired if                                                                    
the  administration   was  engaging  in  due   diligence  by                                                                    
providing  the  credit  rating agencies  an  opportunity  to                                                                    
question the  administration about the proposal  and prevent                                                                    
another downgrade in the state's credit rating.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell   conveyed  that  meetings  with   the  credit                                                                    
agencies  had  already   occurred,  and  the  administration                                                                    
expected to  have feedback from  the agencies  the following                                                                    
day or early in the subsequent week.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon asked if Mr.  Mitchell would be notifying                                                                    
the Finance Committees upon receiving the feedback.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell explained  that if the credit  agencies did not                                                                    
view   the  proposed   transaction  as   the  administration                                                                    
suspected,  it would  have to  reevaluate  the proposal.  He                                                                    
furthered that the administration  expected the proposal was                                                                    
subject to  an appropriation pledge; and  used the Anchorage                                                                    
jail, the  Goose Creek Correctional  Center, and  the Alaska                                                                    
Native Tribal Health Consortium  (ANTHC) housing facility as                                                                    
examples.  The facilities  listed  had all  been subject  to                                                                    
appropriation  commitments of  the  state;  under which  the                                                                    
state annually committed to appropriate money.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
4:05:16 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon clarified  that  the transactions  being                                                                    
considered were taxable.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell answered in the affirmative.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  mentioned reading about cities  that had                                                                    
taken on  pension obligation bonds,  gone bankrupt,  and had                                                                    
later  regretted  decisions  related to  pension  obligation                                                                    
bonds and poor initial returns.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon queried the  impacts on the other states,                                                                    
and  wondered  how  the  monetary  amount  of  the  proposed                                                                    
transaction compared to those  in other states. She remarked                                                                    
that American  pension systems were in  trouble, and thought                                                                    
it was  fascinating that the  State of Illinois  was issuing                                                                    
pension  obligation bonds  when  it could  not make  pension                                                                    
payments. She wondered if there  were other states or cities                                                                    
that had been  successful over a long period of  time in the                                                                    
same   scenario  that   was   being   contemplated  by   the                                                                    
administration.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
STEVE KANTOR, FINANCIAL  ADVISOR, FIRST SOUTHWEST; FINANCIAL                                                                    
ADVISOR,     PENSION     OBLIGATION    BOND     CORPORATION,                                                                    
communicated that the transaction  was sized to be "uniquely                                                                    
Alaskan."  He   elaborated  that  there  had   been  pension                                                                    
obligation  bonds that  had been  larger, and  pension bonds                                                                    
that had  been smaller; and  due to the economies  of scale,                                                                    
the  goal  was  to  maintain  90  percent  funding.  He  was                                                                    
confident that  the state could  sell more bonds  if needed.                                                                    
He thought  cities such as Detroit,  Michigan; and Stockton,                                                                    
California had  structured their  bond deals  to get  all of                                                                    
the potential savings  up front in a way  that had magnified                                                                    
the problem  when things did  not go as planned.  He thought                                                                    
there was a responsible way to structure the transaction.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Kantor  continued, suggesting  that the State  of Alaska                                                                    
had   taken   the  opposite   approach   to   that  of   the                                                                    
aforementioned cities. He reported  that a rating agency had                                                                    
expressed that it  had never seen a  pension bond structured                                                                    
as   conservatively.  He   emphasized   that  the   proposed                                                                    
transaction had  been structured to maximize  the benefit to                                                                    
the state, while minimizing the risk.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
4:09:05 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly invited Representative Saddler to comment.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Representative  Saddler  mentioned  the  effect  of  various                                                                    
financial activities  on the state's  bond rating.  He asked                                                                    
to  what  extent the  issuance  of  the $3.5  billion  would                                                                    
affect the state's bond rating  for general obligation bonds                                                                    
and debt capacity.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  explained that there  would be some  impact on                                                                    
debt  capacity, but  explained that  state  already had  the                                                                    
obligation on its  balance sheet. He considered  that it was                                                                    
a  matter  of the  rating  agencies  following through  with                                                                    
rhetoric  regarding   how  the  agencies   analyzed  pension                                                                    
obligations  that were  on one's  balance  sheet. He  opined                                                                    
that it would be difficult  for the agencies to penalize the                                                                    
state   for  refinancing   an  existing   obligation  in   a                                                                    
responsible fashion.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell   continued,  mentioning   the  size   of  the                                                                    
transaction  and the  state's  outstanding  $800 million  in                                                                    
general  obligation debt.  He discussed  issuing $3  billion                                                                    
subject to  appropriation obligation to the  State of Alaska                                                                    
through a  public corporation. He  explained that  the APOBC                                                                    
would have  feedback on the  subject later in the  week, and                                                                    
reiterated that  if the  group received  unexpected feedback                                                                    
it was likely the transaction would  have to be put on hold.                                                                    
He discussed different rating levels,  and how the state not                                                                    
being downgraded  from an "AA"  rating category  would cause                                                                    
the cost of capital to go up.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Representative  Saddler commented  that  he  had attended  a                                                                    
meeting  with  Commonwealth  North, at  which  the  Alaska's                                                                    
Liquid  Natural  Gas  (AKLNG)   project  was  discussed.  He                                                                    
wondered if  there would  be any  possible advantage  to the                                                                    
state  to gaining  the bond  issue with  anything else  that                                                                    
might  have  to  do  with   financing  of  the  natural  gas                                                                    
pipeline.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Kantor disclosed that he  was also the financial advisor                                                                    
to the  state for  the AKLNG project  for the  Department of                                                                    
Revenue.  He   noted  that   one  potential   advantage  was                                                                    
introducing  the  State  of  Alaska  and  the  appropriation                                                                    
credit to  a much  broader base of  international investors.                                                                    
He  pondered that  the funding  amounts being  discussed for                                                                    
the AKLNG project were quite  significant, and would require                                                                    
additional investors  to be able  to invest in  the project.                                                                    
He  thought that  by getting  parties  comfortable with  the                                                                    
state  and being  able  to  tell the  story  of the  state's                                                                    
credit, the  proposed transaction  could smooth the  way for                                                                    
going ahead with marketing for the AKLNG project.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Representative  Saddler   clarified  that  Mr.   Kantor  was                                                                    
referring  to  financing  in  the  context  of  the  state's                                                                    
reputation.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Kantor answered in the affirmative.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
4:12:52 PM                                                                                                                    
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
4:18:10 PM                                                                                                                    
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
STEPHEN  GAUTHIER, GOVERNMENT  FINANCE OFFICERS  ASSOCIATION                                                                    
(via  teleconference), relayed  that  he had  been asked  to                                                                    
explain  the policy  position  that  the Government  Finance                                                                    
Officers  Association (GFOA)  had taken.  He explained  that                                                                    
GFOA was  the professional  association of  finance officers                                                                    
in  the  United States  and  Canada,  and had  about  18,000                                                                    
members  from  all states  and  most  local governments.  He                                                                    
thought it  was understandable why pension  obligation bonds                                                                    
were  attractive,  and   acknowledged  the  opportunity  for                                                                    
earnings  and  budget  relief through  the  transaction.  He                                                                    
continued and stated that GFOA  had taken a position against                                                                    
pension  obligation bonds  as an  association  was that  the                                                                    
bonds frequently  fail. He furthered  that until  2009, most                                                                    
pension   obligation  bonds   failed.   He  qualified   that                                                                    
currently  there were  more  successful  such bond  ventures                                                                    
than not,  although the endeavor  was still risky.  He added                                                                    
that  pension obligation  bonds often  attracted governments                                                                    
that were in the least position to take such risks.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Gauthier   continued  discussing  GFOA's   position  on                                                                    
pension obligation  bonds, and  highlighted reasons  for the                                                                    
advisory bulletin  referenced by  Mr. Burnett.  He discussed                                                                    
borrowing  money  and  reinvesting   at  a  higher  rate  of                                                                    
interest; and pointed out the  long-term nature of bonds. He                                                                    
emphasized that relying  on a guarantee of  investing at the                                                                    
same  rate was  problematic over  time. He  referred to  the                                                                    
variable  nature of  markets.  He asserted  that there  were                                                                    
complications in reinvesting  refinancing. He explained that                                                                    
very  often it  was possible  to get  monies but  there were                                                                    
factors that would affect how it could be reinvested.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Gauthier relayed  that  often  pension obligation  bond                                                                    
financial arrangements  involved underlying factors  such as                                                                    
swaps  and derivatives,  which carried  more  risk than  was                                                                    
usually  imagined.  He  discussed  complications  with  debt                                                                    
management,  noting that  pension  obligation bonds  lowered                                                                    
legal  debt  margin  by   taking  accounting  liability  and                                                                    
turning  it into  an actual  debt  obligation. He  continued                                                                    
that  with  taxable bonds  there  was  (unlike regular  tax-                                                                    
exempt  bonds) often  no call  provision. He  mentioned that                                                                    
sometimes   GFOA  had   observed  pension   obligation  bond                                                                    
arrangements would  frequently backload  principal payments,                                                                    
and often over  a longer period than  the amortization would                                                                    
have been for the underlying unfunded obligation.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Gauthier    discussed   possible    political   issues                                                                    
(especially  in states  with strong  unions); and  had found                                                                    
that  when   pensions  looked  better,  people   looked  for                                                                    
increases in  benefits. He used  the example of the  City of                                                                    
Detroit, which  had also used  pension obligation  bonds. He                                                                    
found it ironic that on  the surface pension programs [after                                                                    
pension obligation  bonds] looked healthy, because  the debt                                                                    
had been  moved elsewhere.  He concluded that  pension bonds                                                                    
did  not  solve the  pension  problem  for rating  agencies,                                                                    
which  were   fundamentally  looking  for   a  comprehensive                                                                    
solution to  include funding policies and  other details. He                                                                    
mentioned rating  agencies' concern about a  long-term plan.                                                                    
He  summarized  that  it  was  possible  that  the  proposed                                                                    
transaction  would  be  successful,  but  that  it  was  the                                                                    
position of GFOA that the  risks of pension obligation bonds                                                                    
typically outweighed the benefits on most occasions.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
4:23:01 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon wondered  if  Mr.  Gauthier was  present                                                                    
when the  administration showed a  slide that  indicated the                                                                    
structure  of its  proposal was  much  different than  other                                                                    
pension obligation bond transactions;  in the sense that the                                                                    
proposal  was  not taking  up-front  savings  and there  was                                                                    
fixed liability.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Gauthier  indicated that he  had not heard  the comments                                                                    
related to the slide. He  stated that theoretically the risk                                                                    
was that money would be lost  after not being able to invest                                                                    
at  a higher  rate than  the debt.  He was  not sure  how to                                                                    
guarantee having the appropriate rate of return.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon   agreed  that   the  state   could  not                                                                    
guarantee  the rate  of return,  but wanted  to know  if Mr.                                                                    
Gauthier had  considered the administration's  position that                                                                    
the state had a closed plan with a fixed liability.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Gauthier acknowledged  that  a closed  plan did  change                                                                    
some  things, and  could  be considered  "less  of a  moving                                                                    
target."  He  was not  sure  of  the  plan details  and  was                                                                    
hesitant to comment on it.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  remarked that from  the administration's                                                                    
perspective,    the    proposed   transaction    was    more                                                                    
comprehensive than  other cities  or pension plans  that had                                                                    
considered pension obligation bonds.  She continued that the                                                                    
transaction being considered  was fixed for a  time frame of                                                                    
23 years, and  although the state had a  little more control                                                                    
of variables, the rate of return could not be guaranteed.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Gauthier  summarized that  the  rate  of borrowing  was                                                                    
always fixed, but  if for any reason the  market changed and                                                                    
it was  not possible to invest  at a higher rate,  the state                                                                    
would lose money.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
4:25:35 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche characterized  Mr. Gauthier's  comments                                                                    
as blunt  and not  necessarily quantified.  He asked  if the                                                                    
comments were weighed  against the 8 percent  that the state                                                                    
was  currently  paying  in  interest.  He  asked  about  the                                                                    
factors influencing  the failure of pension  obligation bond                                                                    
endeavors in earlier years.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Gauthier  reiterated  that  he was  not  aware  of  any                                                                    
details pertaining  to the proposed transaction,  but rather                                                                    
had been  asked for  a general  recommendation from  GFOA on                                                                    
the  use of  pension obligation  bonds. He  stated that  the                                                                    
bonds were only as good  as the assurance that the purchaser                                                                    
would  not be  stuck  with  a higher  interest  rate on  the                                                                    
bonds.  He reminded  the committee  that the  bonds, because                                                                    
they were  taxable, were over  a longer term  than municipal                                                                    
or callable  bonds. He  thought the  question of  whether to                                                                    
move  forward  with   the  bonds  could  be   reduced  to  a                                                                    
prudential  judgement of  whether  the  state was  satisfied                                                                    
with the bond earnings projection.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche  thought there had been  factors present                                                                    
in  other  pension  obligation bond  transactions  that  had                                                                    
caused  earlier failures.  He noted  that  Mr. Gauthier  had                                                                    
stated  that the  market had  improved in  recent years.  He                                                                    
understood  that there  was  differences  in various  market                                                                    
factors,  but thought  Mr.  Gauthier's  statements had  been                                                                    
more based  on the  risk of the  earlier years  than current                                                                    
conditions. He inquired as to  what conditions that resulted                                                                    
in more failures in earlier years.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Gauthier referred  to dramatic changes in  the market in                                                                    
2008, and referred to a number  highs and lows in the market                                                                    
in  the  years  preceding  2008.  He  reiterated  that  with                                                                    
pension obligation  bonds, the state would  be borrowing and                                                                    
reinvesting  for  a  long  period  of  time,  and  therefore                                                                    
everything  was  dependent  on the  market  performance.  He                                                                    
referred  to  a  quantitative  research  study  from  Boston                                                                    
College.  He reiterated  that it  was not  possible to  have                                                                    
guarantees for investing at a higher rate over a long term.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
4:29:41 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MARK FOSTER, FISCAL STUDY  GROUP MEMBER, COMMONWEALTH NORTH,                                                                    
shared that he  was retired, and was very  interested in the                                                                    
proposed  POB   transaction.  He  was  formerly   the  chief                                                                    
financial officer  of Anchorage  School District, and  had a                                                                    
fair  amount  of  exposure to  the  Governmental  Accounting                                                                    
Standards  Board  (GASB)  and  pension  accounting.  He  had                                                                    
developed some  background information  on the  proposal for                                                                    
Commonwealth North,  and wanted  to share  information about                                                                    
the returns  that had been  generated by  pension obligation                                                                    
bonds by other states or municipalities.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Foster  discussed pension obligation bonds,  noting that                                                                    
other entities had enjoyed good  returns for certain periods                                                                    
of time,  but that  had become negative  in other  years. He                                                                    
referred  to a  table  entitled "Pension  Funding Ratios  by                                                                    
State"  from  the  Boston   College  Center  for  Retirement                                                                    
Research  (copy on  file), and  highlighted data  on pension                                                                    
bonds  issued by  other  states. He  referred  to data  that                                                                    
indicated the bonds  began to look like  good investments in                                                                    
recent  years,  where  there was  increased  liquidity  that                                                                    
helped to push asset prices up.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
4:33:08 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Foster  discussed  historical net  returns  on  pension                                                                    
obligation  bonds,  and a  period  of  time when  there  was                                                                    
qualitative   easing.  He   cautioned   against  using   the                                                                    
information as  a basis for  decision making.  He encouraged                                                                    
the   administration  and   committee  to   review  economic                                                                    
literature  looking at  "headwind" in  the economy  that had                                                                    
the  potential  to  diminish the  returns  relative  to  the                                                                    
historic   records.  Additionally,   he  cautioned   against                                                                    
looking to  the past to  estimate what future  returns would                                                                    
be.  He pointed  out  economic headwinds  such  as an  aging                                                                    
population and  the associated costs. He  reported that many                                                                    
records suggested  low growth and slow  growth returns would                                                                    
drop below 5 percent.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Foster continued, and thought  there was clearly anxiety                                                                    
about  whether  the  bonds  might   have  the  potential  to                                                                    
increase  the interest  rate and  cost  of financing  beyond                                                                    
just the pension.  He considered it could have  an impact on                                                                    
state and local financing  for other capital infrastructure.                                                                    
He  continued that  if it  was possible  to get  a favorable                                                                    
determination, it would be great;  but if not, he considered                                                                    
that   the   bonds   could    have   significant   risk   to                                                                    
infrastructure going forward.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
4:37:04 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy asked  what Mr. Foster thought  of the idea                                                                    
of issuing over $3 billion in pension obligation bonds.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Foster stated  that if  the risk  could be  diminished,                                                                    
with assurances  that there would  not be a  negative impact                                                                    
on other debt  costs (state or local); he  thought the bonds                                                                    
were "a decent bet." He  relayed that he was conservative in                                                                    
his  projections,   and  thought  the  earnings   should  be                                                                    
estimated in the 5 percent range  rather than 7 percent or 8                                                                    
percent.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy   inquired  what   would  happen   if  the                                                                    
administration moved forward with  the transaction without a                                                                    
guarantee that the legislature  would appropriate the funds.                                                                    
He  wondered  how  the appropriation  would  be  structured;                                                                    
whether  it would  go  in the  supplemental  budget, in  the                                                                    
appropriation bill,  or as a  stand-alone item.  He conveyed                                                                    
that he was in the position  of needing to be convinced that                                                                    
the  proposed transaction  was a  good idea.  He was  unsure                                                                    
about the  need for quick  action, and  he was not  sure how                                                                    
many good outcomes  had come from moving quickly  on an item                                                                    
of  such  magnitude.  He   expressed  skepticism  about  the                                                                    
proposal.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator Kelly invited Representative Vasquez to comment.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Representative Vasquez referred  to slide 8 and  slide 9 [of                                                                    
the  PowerPoint presentation  given  by  Mr. Mitchell],  and                                                                    
remarked that the projected scenarios  using a 7 percent and                                                                    
8 percent rate  of return did not seem  realistic. She would                                                                    
have  liked to  have  seen projections  using  6 percent,  5                                                                    
percent, and even a 4  percent rate of return. She discussed                                                                    
the cost of  bond issuance and thought there  should be more                                                                    
information  on the  matter.  She noted  that  there was  no                                                                    
historic  perspective being  presented  on  the returns  the                                                                    
corporation had gained in its investments.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly asked  that  the  administration respond  to                                                                    
Representative Vasquez,  as well  as the Co-Chairs  of House                                                                    
Finance, with the information she requested.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
4:41:33 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche  thanked Mr.  Foster for  his testimony,                                                                    
which  he thought  encapsulated  the periods  of growth  and                                                                    
negative  returns  from  1992  to 2009.  He  referred  to  a                                                                    
document  provided  by  the   director  of  the  Legislative                                                                    
Finance Division.  The document had  shown that in  order to                                                                    
have  negative  returns  over  a  25  year  period,  it  was                                                                    
necessary  to  stack  the period  of  negative  returns.  He                                                                    
referred  to discussion  and testing  of another  investment                                                                    
option  earlier  in  the  year, which  had  found  that  the                                                                    
stacking    had   never    occurred.   He    requested   the                                                                    
administration  to respond  to the  other testifiers  in the                                                                    
meeting and consider the presentations that had been made.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  agreed with  Senator Micciche  and requested                                                                    
that the administration respond  to the other presentations.                                                                    
He thought there were some unanswered questions to address.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   Thompson   asked    that   responses   from   the                                                                    
administration be shared with the House Finance Committee.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly agreed.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
4:43:25 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
The meeting was adjourned at 4:43 p.m.                                                                                          

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
DOR Presentation to Senate Finance - POB Transaction - 9 29 16.pdf SFIN 9/29/2016 2:30:00 PM
Pension Obligation Bonds
LFD Informational Paper 16-1 POB (1).pdf SFIN 9/29/2016 2:30:00 PM
Pension Obligation Bonds
GFOA Advisory - Pension Obligation Bonds 92916.htm SFIN 9/29/2016 2:30:00 PM
Pension Obligation Bonds
ProPublica - Bet Big, Then Go Short.htm SFIN 9/29/2016 2:30:00 PM
Pension Obligation Bonds
POBC Pension Obligation Bond Corporation Resolution.pdf SFIN 9/29/2016 2:30:00 PM
Pension Obligation Bonds